Contents -- Opportunity: Optimizing Life's ChancesAcknowledgments Preface Introduction Chapter One -- An Opportunity Model A special category of choice Opportunities—the low-end and high-end The search for opportunity The matrix of opportunity—the context, elements, and framework The context The elements The framework A model of opportunity Ambiguity of opportunity Regret vs. remorse The elements—three examples Putting it all together—Robinson Crusoe The metaphor of a harbor Opportunity and our changing social awareness The road ahead Questioning your understanding Preliminary questions Chapter Two -- Piecing Together Opportunity from Its Natural Habitats—Investing, Economics, Gambling, Criminology, and Marketing The environment of opportunity Time constraint—investing: timing is money Buy how low? Time constraint Sacrifice—opportunity costs and sunk costs Opportunity costs Sunk costs Risk—gambling without a full deck Catalyst—criminology and opportunity Situational crime prevention The broken window of opportunity Differential opportunity and criminal behavior Embezzlement Regret and remorse—marketing’s blunders—raise it up the flagpole, to half-staff Chapter Three -- Other Contexts of Opportunity—Law, Game Theory, Finance, Business Strategy, and Entrepreneurship The law—motive, means, and opportunity Quantifying opportunity Game theory—conflicts of interest Quantifying risk in corporate finance Business strategy and SWOT analysis Entrepreneurship and innovation Innovative opportunity Chapter Four -- Other Contexts of Opportunity—Religion and Equality of Opportunity Religion—salvation, purgatory, and talents Salvation Purgatory The development of a person’s talents A psychologist’s take on talents The genetic basis of talent How economists analyze the optimal use of our gifts—comparative advantage Equality of opportunity Individual vs. social opportunity Equal educational opportunity Leveling the playing field—what are the implications? Chapter Five -- The Absence of Opportunity—Poverty Being poor vs. poverty Short-term vs. long-term poverty The poverty line—relative and absolute measures of poverty Causes of poverty The Bell Curve theory Social isolation theory Membership theory Role-model theory The culture of poverty theory Conclusions Chapter Six -- The Absence of Opportunity—Stigmatization, Hell, Slavery, Predestination, and Camus’ Stranger Stigmatized out of opportunity Hell by the numbers Homer’s house of Hades—to hell and back The underworld of Virgil The Christian hell—Dante’s Inferno Slavery Slavery, paternalism, and the custodial state Nietzsche’s slave morality Predestination—John Calvin Predestination and opportunity The seeds of the Protestant work ethic Opportunity in the proper calling Camus’ Stranger and the lack of hope Death and opportunity The opportunity for escape Chapter Seven -- Opportunism Opportunism—distinguished from opportunity Shifting the sacrifice or the risk Timeframe of opportunism Regret or remorse Corporate opportunity Infamous opportunists: King Richard III, Faust, and Machiavelli King Richard III—Now is the winter of our discontent. Faust—selling your soul to the devil Machiavelli—the prince of opportunism Machiavelli on virtues and human nature Machiavelli on prudence Machiavelli on war Chapter Eight -- The Framework—A Worldview A world of witches The impact on opportunity Adaptation or accommodation Adaptation—changing the world Accommodation—changing your outlook Self-efficacy Learned helplessness Explanatory style and helplessness Robinson Crusoe Accommodation—the other end of the spectrum The asceticism of Francis of Assisi Stoic asceticism Accommodation, talents, and equal opportunity Adaptation—the honeymoon is over Adaptation and equal opportunity Chapter Nine -- The Elements and Context Time constraint Henri Bergson and subjective time Time and opportunity The increasing importance of the future Time urgency Sacrifice Risk Catalyst Regret or remorse The opportunity to do and the opportunity to be Problem, choice, and value Chapter Ten -- Predicting the Future The light of experience illuminates the future Distortions in our organization of past—availability Distortions in our organization of past—extra meaning Prediction and superstition Prediction and opportunity Chapter Eleven -- Engaging and Predicting the Future—Applications: Investing, Economics, and Gambling Investing—technical analysis Technical analysis using astrology Astrology—the forces behind the markets Limitations of astrology Economic prediction Economics as science Economics—induction and deduction Development of economic prediction Economic chaos Gambling—the source of statistical studies of probability Pascal’s wager Central points of Pascal’s argument Chapter Twelve -- Engaging and Predicting the Future—Applications:Criminology, Marketing, Law, and Human Nature Criminology—predicting the future criminal Crime prediction methods Crime and human nature—“criminal man” Child-rearing and crime prediction Biology and crime prediction Marketing—technology, product, and industry life cycles. Technology life cycle Product life cycle Industry cycles The law Predicting limits of conduct Predicting character—evidence law Human nature—predicting conduct Arnold Toynbee—the long view Erving Goffman—roles in everyday life Niccolo Machiavelli—men are a sorry lot Erik Erikson—trust as the key to predictability Chapter Thirteen -- Engaging the Future—Applications: Superstition, Induction, and Prayer Engaging the future Engaging the future—superstition Superstition and opportunity Induction and superstition Engaging the future—induction Engaging the future—prayer Prayer of petition Prayer, poverty, education, and age Chapter Fourteen -- Hierarchy and Opportunity Aristotle and opportunity Positive influences—reason and observation Negative influences—immutability and perfection The great chain of being The Christian adaptation The hierarchy in 1300—Dante’s Paradise The tragic flaw in Aristotle’s hierarchy Kepler’s death knoll for circular assumptions The other shoe—the new emphasis on method—Francis Bacon Asking the right questions Chapter Fifteen -- Pulling It Together Stumbling blocks, pit falls, and blind spots Questions Chapter Sixteen -- The Nutshell of Opportunity—Sayings, Proverbs, Aphorisms, Quips, and Poems Notes Works Cited Index |
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